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This post has been adapted from cricket trading legend Richard Futter's sound advice he has shared with us recently. As members know Richard is one of the founding fathers of Betfair trading and although he doesn't covet the spotlight, we are very fortunate to have him as a member who shares in our community. Enjoy!
There's going to be an awful lot of T20 cricket in the coming weeks. The Caribbean Premier League has already started, the Blast in the UK begins next week, there are internationals between England and Pakistan on the horizon - and the Indian Premier League finally getting off the ground next month.
So I thought I'd give a few pointers as to how I tend to trade these matches, during their various phases:
The first few overs are quite difficult to trade before a pattern is established, and I tend to go for what I call the "double figure" strategy. Basically I wait until both batsmen have reached 10 or more and then back the batting side. I keep stakes low and don't get too ambitious; I generally take out most of the red when I'm 10-20 ticks in profit and leave a little in if I feel the batting side looks strong. If a wicket falls I obviously accept the loss but over the years I've found that the successful trades strongly outweigh the failures. I would only use this strategy for the first 15 overs of an innings as in the latter stages wickets can often fall in clumps.
The latter stages of an innings offer some great chances of bouncebacks after a wicket. As has already been mentioned in some earlier posts, the market often overreacts to a wicket, which in the grand scheme of things might not make a huge difference to the final score and it doesn't take much to send the market into a quick reverse.
The second innings. I would again employ the "double figure" strategy, although I would lower the stakes as you tend to get bigger moves with both runs and wickets.
The final overs. My very favourite time. More often than not I will have a decent amount of green in the bank and can put in a very low lay knowing that whatever happens I won't lose overall. I generally look for a lay around the 1.03-1.05 mark, especially if it's the bowling side who are favourites. In the various domestic T20 leagues virtually every team has lower order batsmen quite capable of launching a few sixes or fours which send the price shooting upwards at a rate of knots. The price quite regularly rises to 1.2, 1.3, 1.5 or even 2 on occasions.
I hope this of some help to people. A warning though: T20's can be a real roller-coaster ride, so don't overstake. I keep my stakes to between 10-25% of what they would be in a Test Match.
Also look out for the "marquee players" - ie. the really highly rated stars of the the league. Leg spinner Rashid Khan is one - the price of the bowling side tends to come down when he comes on to bowl. And when batsmen like Kieron Pollard or Andre Russell get out the market can often continue to go against the batting side for some time.
So, take a look at the matches and markets to see how the various factors move them. You will note familiar patterns along the way and develop profitable strategies of your own I'm sure.
Good luck to everyone.
As ever, I hope this advice helps! That is what we are here for. For further advice from Richard and ourselves head over to the cricket thread in the forum.
If you have any questions just chat to me in your personal trading thread on our forum or email me: firstname.lastname@example.org