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Betfair Trading - Outright Betting Markets

Martin Futter's picture
Apr 23, 2020

Here at Betfair Trading Community one of our favourite things to do is look at longer term trading on the ouright betting markets. These markets tend to cover outcomes of multiple selections who are competing for a title, such as the Premier League winner or the Wimbledon Champion. The reason these markets can be so profitable for us on Betfair are that as there are more competitiors in the market the odds on some of the people/teams can be huge! Of course that is relevant to their perceived chance of winning but there is one really clear way to get the edge on the market. That is what I am going to discuss today.

Betfair trading is all about having an edge on the market, taking advantage of an opportunity that present itself quicker than the market is able to catch up and correct itself to the right odds. How we find this edge is by locating value. Value is very simply a price that is bigger than it should be when backing or a price that is smaller than it should be when we want to lay an outcome. 

Every trader should always have this thought in the back of their mind when trading on Betfair.

'Is this a value selection, if so, why?' If a trader can answer this question to jusify the value of a selection then the time has come to jump in on it.

So how do we find an edge or some value when trading these outright betting markets? The answer:

'Early information!'

Have you ever found out a huge piece of sports news as soon as it broke and gone a told all of your friends about it? Do you follow sports news and often know about things as and when they happen?

If so you are in pole position to take advantage of this early information! 

However, don't tell your friends about it first. What you should be doing is heading over to Betfair and backing or laying the team whose news just broke, before the market finishes reacting to it. Then watch as the price moves the way you would expect it to and green up accordingly. 

If you do that you have just made some easy profit on the Betfair exchange my friend.

I will give you a prime example of such a trade from earlier this week. Rob Gronkowski arguably the best tight-end in NFL history came out of retirement to link up with arguably the best quarter-back in history Tom Brady. The market was slow to react and Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds eventually came into 12.5 to lay from 20 earlier that day. 

Here is the graph: 

Tampa Bay

Take a look at that recent drop from 20 to 12.5! That was the reaction to this news. If you made this trade and only backed Tampa with £10 you could remove all of your liability and be sitting on £75 profit in Tampa Bay wins the Superbowl. A nice free bet if you can get it hey! 

So how can we take advantage of this in our future Betfair trading? 

Listen to what we hear in the sports news, take advantage when we see a breaking sports story.

Did Messi just get injured? Lay Barcelona!

Is Federer about to withdraw from a tourament after a lengthy match in the previous round, lay him!

Did a cricket team just lose the toss and chose to bat or bowl? If the conditions are favourable to that decision back them.

Did the star QB of your team go down with a likely season ending injury? Lay that team.

I think you get the idea and can now have a go at this yourself.

So, finally, what if it doesn't go to plan? What if the price of the team you backed does not come in. Well give it some time if the kick-off/start is still some way off but if after a few hours the market has not gone your way just cut your losses. NEVER ever take it inplay as that is the quick way to the poor house with these outright betting Betfair trades!

Hope that has helped you, dip your toes in next time you see an opportunity like this and see how it goes.

Any questions as ever just email me, Ryan or Adam at: info@betfairtradingcommunity.com or if you want a quicker response just ask us on your personal training section on our forum. 

I'll be back with more next week!