Cricket Trading on the Betfair Exchange - Keep the Weather With You!
Oct 23, 2019
By Martin in Blog
Is domestic cricket in this country about to get more exciting and inspire a younger generation to get into the sport? The apparent first ever UK draft for a sport happened last week for the new event 'Hundred' (100 balls bowled in an innings). A remix of the T20 format has seen some of the games top players drafted into newly formed British cricket teams for the event that starts in 2020.
More importantly what does this mean for us who love cricket trading on the Betfair Exchange? Well the answer is simple more cricket to trade, brilliant!
So let's get staight to the point today, I want to talk about a really important factor in cricket matches, a subject so important that it even has it's own market to trade on (one which we make a lot of money from) and that is 'the weather'.
If you are trading cricket you must understand the rules of the match regarding weather. I will explain them briefly here:
In test matches - The result will stand regardless of the weather, if play is washed out it is a draw.
In ODI and T20s - The result only counts if both sides bat a set amount of overs, this will be stated in the rules of the Betfair market so make sure you find out how many overs need to be bowled.
OK, so how do we make money from this?
Over the years we have learnt that the weather may be unpredictable but fortunately the Betfair Exchange markets are more predictable. We have traded several times backing 'No Result' in the 'Completed Match' market when the forecast in the UK is dire and the odds are still above evens (2.0).
Why? Because the market seems to have some kind of eternal optimism in these cases. The general trend seems to be that the market believes the weather forecast will be wrong, yet over here it rarely is at such a late juncture.
I have mentioned the UK here specifically because the sub-continent is a mystery regarding weather forecasts. Maybe it is the climate or maybe it is a lack of technology but often a forecast that predicts rain on all five days of a test match, turns out to be completely wrong with no rain whatsoever.
We had a great example of this last week in the India v South Africa test match, rain forecast everyday but none was to be seen. Of course in such instances we can often 'lay the draw' (one of our favourite strategies anyway) at short odds due to the forecast and then cash out for a good profit when the match does play out.
Cricket trading on the Betfair Exchange really can be very easy when you put your mind to it. Find a reliable weather forecast site, check the forcast at the ground the match is being played on specifically and get to trading!
We are planning to get some cricket trading software sorted in the near future, once the horse one is done, so if you have any ideas on what you want let us know via the usual places! See you next week for another post.