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Horse Racing Trading - From Flat Racing to the National Hunt - How to Adapt

Martin Futter's picture
Oct 09, 2019

Horse racing trading as a sport we love is under fire again this week, let's hope the rouge trainers can really work out their methods of how to treat these glorious beasts, or hope that these trainers are gotten rid of so we can focus on the great aspects of this sport.

We love horse racing trading on the Betfair exchange and I think it is important to recognise that we are entering one of the toughests trading periods of the year. The summer season is dominated by the flat racing, the winter is dominated by the National Hunt racing (jumps racing). So the start of Autumn and Spring will always be difficult inbetween periods for traders.

It is all still horse racing though so why does it matter? Here is why:

At these two periods of the year one of the seasons is beginning (in this case the National Hunt) and one is ending (in this case the flat). So you get two scenarios in play here, one where the horses are just starting the season of racing and one where they are ending it. Like in most other sports this can lead to complacency, at the start of a season the horses may not be fully 'race fit' and at the end of it they may be winding down and the trainers may have less motivation to win as they are thinking ahead.

Let's think about this using another sport for a comparison - Football. Think about the football season, when is it at it's least predicatable? At the start and the end of the season. Those first few games and last few games have some bizarre results (anyone remember on the last day of the season one year when a Tony Pulis led West Brow drawing 5-5 against Man United?). 

Bringing it back to horse racing trading my personal experiences have proven that this is true. I have found my best results are between that sweetspot of a month after the start of the season and a month before then end of it. I have also watched professional tipping services where this has also worked out.

It makes sense but how can we use this extra piece of knowledge to our benefit? 

The simple answer is to be patient, at this time of year you can reduce stakes or just sit back and watch, maybe it is a good time to have a brief holiday! There is a wise saying in this industry:

'A no-bet/no-trade is more profitable than a losing one!' This is basic maths but so many people try to force bets during a time period where even they know they are up against it. 

So what can we do if we decide to wait a couple of weeks to trade the new season?

Fortunately, there are so many things we can do to improve our background knowledge and get ahead in researching the upcoming races. This can also be a great time to look back at your horse racing trading strategies and assess whether they can be improved and tweaked a bit to become even better!

If you are not sure where to look or how to start it, I have covered a lot of it here on my start guide to trading the horses check it out here: 

https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/horse-racing-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

If you are a member or have been reading our posts for a while you will know how passionate we are about horse racing trading here on BTC. So much so that we are creating software tailored to what you have asked for, this will be an exciting upgrade to our already impressive football and tennis statistics sofware!

In the meantime some of our members are doing outstanding work on the horse racing thread! Check that all out here: 

http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/21/2019-horse-trading-thread

If you have any questions about horse racing fire them over to me (ask for Martin in the email!) info@betfairtradingcommunity.com

 

See you next week for another post.

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