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Why you should still trade Football in the Summer...

Ryan Carruthers's picture
Mar 26, 2019
Every year around this time of the football season I get people telling me that they aren’t going to contiuning their Betfair trading the football for much longer because the main leagues are coming to an end and they are going to wait until the new season and to be honest I think they are crazy! Over the course of this post I will explain why and I will back it up with some data ? 
Firstly, I understand why I get these messages… people who might be new to trading or even new to the summer leagues which they have no knowledge, I get it…. Isnt trading all about data and numbers though? Is football the same game played in mainland Europe as it is in Asia, Americas and the Nordic countries? Are the rules still the same? 
So we agreed they are the same, I know you are going to say well the liquidity isn’t…. No its not the millions that we see in the premier league but it is still more than adequate to get your trades matched and let me tell you the smart traders are trading the summer leagues. 
It’s also the exact same process as what you are going now, if you are laying the draw in Europe do you really think that won’t work in the summer leagues? Or even trading goals? Again do you think it wont work? 
Let’s compare some data…. 
League  Over 2.5%  Avg Goals  League  Over 2.5%  Avg Goals 
England Premier League  52%  2.85 Singapore S League  45% 2.73
France Ligue 1  47% 2.5 USA MLS  57% 3.1 
Germany Bundesliga 62% 3.12 Sweden Allsvenskan  52% 2.72
Italy Serie A  52%  2.71  Norway Eliteserien 54% 2.8
Spain La Liga  46%  2.54 Iceland Urvalsdeild 57%  2.9
These are the leagues I think most people would be looking at to trade that they know of when you compare them to the other leagues that are running from now till September you can see that there isn’t actually that much difference in stats. There is still a lot of goals in the summer leagues. 
Going through all the stats as well makes even more interesting reading…. 
  Avg Goals  Home Avg Goals  Away Avg Goals Over 2.5%  BTTS% 
Summer Leagues 2.63  1.46 1.17 48% 50%
Winter Leagues  2.63 1.46 1.17 49% 50%
Chart with the Over 2.5% of all the Winter Leagues 
Chart with the goals, Home goals & Away goals for the Summer Leagues 
I think this is the most surprising comparison, this included all the leagues in each segment. There is literally nothing between them, so why would you stop trading after May? When the stats are almost identical? The only difference is that you have to research other leagues instead of the ones you are used too, which if you use BTC stats you won’t even need to spend anymore time on any other websites, it will just provide you with the results for your filters for these leagues instead of the winter ones - seamless hey? 
League  Highest Over 2.5%  League  Lowest Over 2.5%
China Super League  69% Ireland Premier Division 34%
Canada CSL  68% Japan J League 2  35%
Iceland Urvalsdeild 57% Brazil Serie A  37%
Norway Eliteserien 57% South Korea  K League 2  38%
USA MLS  57% Thailand League 1 38% 
Makes for interesting reading for the traders that focus on the overs and under markets, there is so many opportunities in these leagues - I hope you are realising this now. One of the things you have to be aware of is there is less games so having a trading plan is key and really researching these is paramount, but for a lot of traders who feel overwhelmed by all the games that are around on a weekend, with the summer league it makes you focus more on the quality of games rather than the quantity. 
It’s a lot more comparable than you first thought isn’t it? Football is football, its a game of 22 men running around after a ball, you can get the stats a make your trades the same interesting as well is the draw % of the Summer Leagues 26%, can you guess what the Winter Leagues draw % is?…… 
Amazing, so if you are a LTD trader this is music to your ears, in my opinion no matter what strategy around the football you trade the Summer Leagues offer some fantastic opportunities. Why would you wait? You are missing out on not just improving your trading but also some fantastic opportunities, our stats software allows you to do all the research you need to as well. 
Want to see all my research on this topic? Including a list of all leagues running through the summer and the stats to compare the leagues click here…. 


Gordon Mitchell's picture

Thank you for this article. So football trading is not seasonal! That's great. I canny wait to get started. Gordon

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