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Six Nations Betting Preview and England vs Wales

Martin's picture
Feb 08, 2018

The six nations started last weekend and we thought we would share some betting strategies that we implement on Rugby Union matches. 

Betting on Rugby is perhaps not as prevelant as it should be, there are a lot of opportunities to trade the sport and as traders we should be ready to take advantage of them. 

One of the strategies we have used to brillant effect especially in big international tournaments like this are backing the underdogs who are heavyily unfavoured in the handicap market. Often this line is overinflated to accomodate for big team bias and some handicaps can be huge. Look at this weekend for example, Italy are +34.5 points in the handicap, they would have to lose by 35 points for you to lose your money, now this may well happen but these lines rarely get destroyed early on. What we are looking for is a tight start to the match and to get out of this trade by 60-70mins played (as sometimes the small teams tire out at that point and become defenceless). 

The World Cup is great for this as sometimes you can get lines of +70 points, utter madness but it really happens. One of the keys to why this trade is successful is that teams who lead by big margins can often slow down, especially if they already have won the bonus point. 

Where is the percieved edge? 

  1. Punters and bookies overrating the strong favourites based on reputation (this happens a lot in sport)
  2. Teams aren't as motivated to win by 30+ points as they are just to win, so when the win is already in the bag they often see it out
  3. We can watch the match and assess when it is tight enough to get involved or when the danger signs to leave it well alone are there

Talking of overrating the big clubs, that brings me nicely to this weekend's massive game between England and Wales.

England - Betfair Odds 1.25 (Martin's odds 1.4)

When I first saw these odds I thought Wales looked a very tasty price at 5.5 here and after researching the game I still feel that win or lose this is the value play. Put it another way, it would take a brave person to back England at 1.25 here. 

I lived in Wales for a year and this is their big local derby, forget everything else, this is their big sporting event of the year. They will be hugely motivated to put in a performance here.

There is no doubt that Wales play much better at home than away and this is another reason for such an inflated price but there huge margin of victory against Scotland cannot be ignored. Lots of pundits were really talking up this Scotland side however they were soudly thrashed by the Welsh.

England are worthy favourites, don't get me wrong but just not as worthy as Betfair's traders would have you believe. Yes they won very well in Rome but Italy have been the wooden spoon team since they joined. 

If Wales start well get on them or if you don't mind more liability take them at +12.5 (or more) on the handicap at close to evens. I would be surprised if there were not good opportunities to green up during this one.

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