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Betfair Football Trading Scalping the Overreactions Strategy

Martin's picture
Dec 01, 2017

Most top traders make their biggest earnings scalping markets and we are no different here at BTC. This strategy follows the same theory as the cricket one and is applied to football goal markets.

What is the main idea? 

To scalp markets after a goal which we believe have overreacted to the goal. So, essentially we are looking for prices that have come in too far on 'overs' and then laying the overs for a few ticks while market settles quickly into reality and trading out when price rises back to normal. 

I will give you an example: Real Madrid are playing Barcelona, the over 4.5 goals market is 4.0 for overs at kick off. The over 3.5 goals market is 2.5 for overs at kick off.

Real Madrid score in the 5th minute and the over 4.5 goals price comes into 2.2.

However, we know it should be above 2.5 as that was the over 3.5 goals market price at kick off and with the goal going in the over 4.5 goals markets is essentially now the over 3.5 goals market (as you are betting on another 3.5 goals now that one has been scored). So we would lay at 2.2 and expect the price to rise quickly back towards 2.5 when we get a few ticks and are happy we can trade out, hopefully with not too much football being played. 

So how can we take advantage of these markets? 

  1. As ever with scalping I use trading software, it really is essential. I use BetTrader however there are others out there so see what works best for you!
  2. Look for markets where the overs prices are very short like in the example above. These markets will be cheaper to lay and mean less liability if things don't go our way.
  3. Try to trade top European leagues so that liquidity does not become an issue.
  4. I like to trade the over 3.5 and 4.5 goals markets as there is more room to manoeuvre but you can use the 2.5 goals market too, I would not use the 1.5 goals market as you lose your stake if the second goal goes in.
  5. Usually I will be laying overs, you can back unders too if you wish, it shouldn't make a difference on liquid markets.
  6. I research the game I am looking to trade and check it on our software, looking for games I with less goal expectation than the market assumes.
  7. Ideally we are not in the trade for more than a couple of minutes, five minutes would be my absolute limit.
  8. If you are quick to react be one of the first to 'offer' a price, you never know you may get matched at silly odds because people want to quickly lay off a position before the market has settled.
  9. As soon as you get matched put your desired hedge into the market and wait to see if it is not matched, if not you can cancel it but it is worth doing incase it does get matched.
  10. Often the prices get matched quickly and easily, you may have to adjust them as the market moves if you do not get matched.
  11. Don't hang around too long, if the market is being stubborn after a couple of minutes then you may want to trade out for scratch, a smaller profit or a smaller loss/
  12. Always hedge for an equal green on both sides when in profit.
  13. If a goal is scored and the market has gone against you hedge for the loss but wait for the market to settle, don't rush to take the loss at worse odds than you need to. 

That's it! Practice this when you next get the chance, you will be amazed how often the market overreacts to goals. Once you get the hang of it, it really can be a great way to make money trading! 

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