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Is My Betfair Trading Strategy Any Good? Here’s How To Find Out 100%

Martin's picture
Dec 01, 2023

One question that you should be asking is: Is my Betfair Trading Strategy Any Good? Or is it Just Lucky?

 

You could even ask if this is a bad strategy: Is it just bad or unlucky?

 

How can you ever know?

 

There is a way and I am about to tell you it.

 

So strap yourselves in this is going to be a good one, it could have the power to change your Betfair Trading life! 

 

So there is a statistical model that tells you whether or not your Betfair Trading Strategy results are likely to be by chance, or are actually a good measure for how good your strategy is.

 

It is called the ‘Archie Score’. The Archie Score is a scoring system whereby the higher the number it gives, the more chance you have a strategy that is skill based rather than luck based.

 

Here is a table that demonstrates this: 

 

 

 

No longer do we have to try and guess whether our strategy is actually good we can now use a statistical model to work it out for us.

 

You may now be thinking:

 

That’s great but how do I work out the Archie score?

 

Well as ever our Software Development Team has done this for you!

 

Let’s head over to it…

 

In the Betfair Trading Community Horse Racing Software when you run a straight betting strategy, either backing or laying a horse to win, the results section now includes it. So the software will automatically calculate your Archie Score as pictured here: 

 

 

So in this example the Archie score is 52.03 if we look at the original chart that score is off the scale. Chances are we are onto a good strategy! Less than 1% chance it is luck.

 

However, to really make sure you have a good strategy, you should also run the results of the strategy from the date you created it. So that the results shown are relevant to the forward testing only. The reason for this is that you may have over filtered and back-fitted your strategy to make it profitable in the backtesting. So you do not know in forward testing actually how good it will be.

 

Again, this is very easy to do in the Betfair Trading Community Software. 

 

All you have to do is go to the strategy rules click ‘Choose a Rule’, ‘Specific Date’ then click ‘Add Rule’. Then it will add it to the bottom of the rules section, whereby you can change the date to in this case September 2022 to present day as that is when the strategy was created.

 

Click ‘next’ and then ‘run strategy’ and the new Archie score will show in the results again. This time the result is much lower than 4.8.

 

 

However if we refer to the original table again there is around a 4% chance that the results from forward testing are not skill based. So still a very good chance of it being skill based!

 

Here is another tip, after doing this click ‘Save New’ it will now save your forward testing strategy for you! Alongside your original one. So you can easily split test the results moving forward.

 

 

That ladies and gentlemen is the power of the Archie score. Plus how you can use the Betfair Trading Community software to calculate it for you.

 

No longer are we stuck trying to guess if our strategies are legitimate, we now have software that will tell us which Betfair Trading Strategies are worth sticking with! 

 

If you have enjoyed this please write the word ‘Score’ in the comments. That let’s me know that you liked it and I will make more content like this for you.

 

Have a great week, and most importantly, I hope you make some money trading on Betfair!