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Betfair Football Trading - Over 0.5 Second Half Goal Strategy Analysis

Martin Futter's picture
Sep 30, 2020

One of the most important aspects of Betfair Football Trading is being able to analyse your strategies and work out if they are any good.

On that note we have decided today to do a deep dive analysis of our 'late second half goals filter' which has been performing well since it's inception. 

Below is a picture of the Betfair trading strategy, along with all of the criteria we imput into our Betfair trading software, so that it produces our football trading selections for that day.

At the time of writing - This filter is available to view on our 'Profitable member filters' section on our software so you have full access to both the filter and it's football trading selections.

Take a look:

Late Goal Strategy

Now let's go through the criteria and see why it has had success and how you can apply it to your football trading to make money on Betfair!

1. Overall: Full-time 0-0 = equal to or less than 10% - 

As with any Over 0.5 goals football trading strategy the first place to start is to look for matches where the teams have not had many 0-0 results, in this case equal to or less than 10%.

2. Home and Away scored equal to or above 75% - 

We want teams who score goals regularly, as a result if teams score at least 3 out of 4 matches on average, there is a good chance they will score in their next game!

3. Home and Away conceded equal to or above 50% -

It's no good backing a late goal in a game where the teams don't concede goals. It's important that both teams score and concede regularly. Whilst this figure is slightly lower than the 75% scored percentage 50% for both teams is good enough for us! 

4. Home goals scored on average above or equal to 1 - 

We want the home team to score regularly, if they don't it could be a slower game.

5. Overall more goals scored in the second half - 

We are going for late goals, so give us the teams that score more in the second half than the first!

6. Overall matches played equal to or above 8 each - 

We want a reasonable amount of data to make it more valid, a minimum of 16 games seems reasonable in that respect.

7. Scope of 20 games - 

We want as much data as we can have for more accurate analysis.

8. Restrict to current season -

We want more relevant data, last season was probably a very different looking team. 

9. Exclude playoffs - 

We want regular season fixtures only, playoffs are not normal games and teams do not behave the same as they do in league fixtures. 

 

So here we have the filter, the criteria and an explanation of why they were chosen.

We have found that this fitler performs best when the teams are drawing at 60mins, that is when we back another goal on the Betfair exchange.

At the time of writing this football trading strategy has a goal 74.3% of the time, meaning average odds of around 1.35 would break even and we know odds are between 1.4-1.5 in general leading to a nice profit overall!

Hopefully this has helped to give you some ideas for your own Betfair trading football strategies, maybe you even want to try trading the second half goals yourself!

For all the info and help you need Trading football on the Betfair exchange keep it here at: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/