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Betfair ELO Strong Team Comeback Trading System

Martin Futter's picture
Jul 09, 2020

Before following any football strategy please familiarise yourself with this essential how to guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

Video Walkthrough here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/content/betfair-elo-strong-team-comeback-trading-system

This strategy uses our ratings system to identify very strong favourites who if they go behind in a game we can expect to come back into it.

There are 2 simple selection criteria for this strategy: 

1. The ELO difference must be 100+ between the two teams. So the strong team must have 100+ more points than their opponents according to our ELO ratings.

These numbers are found under the ratings as either Home ELO or Away ELO

2. The comeback rating must be 63 or above if them strong team is at home. If the strong team is the away team this number must be 70 or above.

The comeback rating is also found under the ratings listed as Home Comeback or Away Comeback

If the stronger team falls behind first we will lay the opposition.

If they go two goals behind we will usually will re-lay, this is because in this situation the odds to lay are usually heavy odds on and so there is little liability added.

If the strong team then gets one back we will cash out except for if:

The home team makes it 1-1 we can stay in until either they take the lead or 70 mins at either of those points we cash out and take the profit. (This is optional)

If the stronger team is the away team we will cash immediately as they make it 1-1 as often they will go on to concede again and many times lose from there.

Odds:

If laying at odds above 3.0 make sure you are confortable with the liability. There is nothing wrong with limiting your odds limit to something around 3.5 or below. 

If you do not mind laying at higher odds we do have a suggestion for limiting liability.

For this we use the same odds parameters as the Maria staking system:

We lay 1% of our bank at 1.01-3.5 odds. 0.6% at 3.5-7.4 odds and 0.4% at 7.4-11.0 odds.

If there is no goal we usually let it run and take the loss.

Final note: 

There is nothing wrong in taking a loss if you want to, that is of course your decision and right as a trader, we have found it best not to do that though.

Ideally, inplay stats would suggest that the strong team can make a comeback, if they do not you can consider not entering the trade. These were tested not using the benefit on inplay stats though and worked regardless. 

This strategy made around 35pts of profit in the past year for Richard who shared the selections with the community on his excel sheet during that time as proof of the profit.

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