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Betfair Late Goal When Drawing Trading Strategy

Martin Futter's picture
Jul 09, 2020

Before following any football strategy please familiarise yourself with this essential how to guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

Video walkthrough here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/content/backing-late-goal-when-drawing

You can view this filter and the selections daily on the Football Software 'Profitable Members Filters' section.

This filter identifies games in which late goals are predicted. During testing there was a 78% win rate of a goal between 60-90 minutes, which netted a very good profit.

The scoreline must be level for us to enter (So 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 for example)

There are two ways to trade this:

1. Back a goal or LTD if scoreline is level at 60mins (green up on goal if you LTD let it run unless you see a reason to get out). 

2. Back another goal late on but split our stake 3 ways. So back another goal with 34% of stake at 60mins, 33% at 74mins and 33% at 84mins. If a goal is scored we win the bet.

Testing was done without the benefit on inplay stats so you can use these to boost your selections if you wish.

This is a set and forget strategy, that said if you want to take a loss at any point that is your decision to make, however, the statistics suggest we should let them run to completion. 

Odds:

Ideally we want odds of around 1.4+ for another goal at 60 mins to enter either of these trades.

During testing an average back at 1.33 odds would have been profitable but it is nice to give a bigger margin.

I would definitely avoid if odds are 1.35 or below at 60 mins.

Master Results Sheet (look for the sheet labeled 'Late LTD'): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cpqyy6ijhtHNRs_7sSVBMVIrWEhmAuLFXVLnN51DUFs/edit?usp=sharing

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