This is the third part (of four) of my series on the 'Holy Trinity' of Betfair trading, by this I mean that the three key metrics I mentioned in the previous article are what will help differentiate the men from the boys! (Or women from the girls of course).
1. Proper Pre-Match Research
2. Using inplay stats and the 'eye' test
3. Including motivating factors and situational advantages.
Today's focus will be on 'Using inplay stats and the 'eye' test' with 10 ways I use in-play stats when trading on the Betfair exchange.
Why use in-play stats?
In-play statistics are a great measure for finding out how a match is being played out. There are a few key metrics we can use in play (I will go through these later) and we also have the luxury of being able to watch the action in a match before entering a trade. In-play stats are best used as a compliment to your pre-match research, to either confirm your potential trade or help you steer clear of it should the action not reflect your original analysis.
I often talk about pre-match and in-play stats as partners, you want both to be working together cohesively for you. That way you can be confident that the trade you enter is indeed the correct opportunity.
What four in-play stats do I look at when goals football trading and why? (I tend to use Bet365 for stats)
I usually look for goals to be scored so these stats will relate to that, if you are an unders backer I guess you can do the opposite to a lot of the advice below!
The first in-play stat I always look for is shots on target, I want to see action and that the team has had some chances. I would weight this stat very highly compared with others.
The next key stat is shots off target, whilst I do not rate these as highly as shots on target they are important. Shots of target show a willingness to shoot and that chances are being created.
The next stat to check is corners - we want some corners as they reflect that there have been chances with either a keeper saving the ball or a defender making a last ditch clearance.
The final stat I like to look at in dangerous attacks whilst this is not as essential I do like to see that a high amount of dangerous attacks have happened, especially in relation to the 'attacks' metric on Bet365
Let's move on to the match odds market:
What in-play stats do I look for in the match odds market? (Backing a team or laying the other team).
I want the team I am wishing to win to be dominating the match
They should have the majority to vast majority of the attacks, dangerous attacks, and shots on goal both on and off target.
They should have the most possession of the two teams.
Finally, there is one more type of data I like to use and it is the 'eye test'!
Watching a match you are trading is ideal for seeing whether the opportunity is clear.
The most important thing to watch is whether there are any clear red flags in the match that mean we should not trade it - for example I want to back goals but neither team is getting past their half way line.
Watch for events that can have an impact on gameflow (when I talk of gameflow I am talking about the way a match is shaping up, if it is an open game a substitution or red card could change the gameflow and slow it down).
Watch for momentum has one team suddenly got the upper hand and it is obvious? Keep a check on this you do not want to be entering when the team you are laying is on top!
So here I have given 10 key steps and briefly explained them. The truth is most of these steps take less than a minute of research and won't take you long to do. You will see the benefit of them when you are able to filter out potential 'trap' games that may have caught you out had you not properly prepared that day.
As ever, I hope this advice helps! That is what I am here for to help you. I'll be back next time and will be covering the importance of motivation and situational trading factors.