Inplay Football Trading - Laying the draw at half time and second half goals! | Betfair Trading Community

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Inplay Football Trading - Laying the draw at half time and second half goals!

Inplay Football Trading - Laying the draw at half time and second half goals!

Martin Futter's picture
Dec 02, 2019

At BTC we have been asked what to look for inplay when trading football matches, specifically looking for second half goals!

Another great weekend of football trading on Betfair Trading Community has come to an end and people keep asking us exactly what we look for inplay when trading for goal in football.

 

When I was in the cubs as a kid (I never made the scouts, not sure why, I like to think I grew out of it but I suspect maybe I wasn't allowed in!) there was a saying:

'Be prepared'

Why do I need to be prepared? Well there is another common phrase for that:

'Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.'

 

The fact is when trading you have to prepare.

Q. So how do we do this football trading inplay?

A. Check the prematch stats.

 

This may sound a little obvious but I think all inplay traders need to take this into account. Pre-match stats are just as important if not more important than inplay stats, I have found they can be a great indicator of what is about to happen in a football match.

Fortunately we have software here at BTC that allows you to create your own criteria for pre-match stats and will then select your matches to trade for you! Not only that but you can also follow some preset members filters if you don't want to make your own, so the hard work has been done for you.

 

Find it all here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/statistics?advagg=0

 

So what specifically can we look for?

I have a successful lay the draw at half-time filter and send the selections out to members daily.

What criteria do I use for this filter?

Rules are:

  • Less than 10% of matches finish 0-0
  • Away team has scored in 75% of their games
  • Home team has scored in 80% of their games
  • The teams must have played 8 matches this season
  • Restrict data to current season only
  • My scope is 20 matches
  • I exclude play off matches

That is the exact filter and it works great for me finding games to lay the draw at half-time.

Here is a video of the filter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEDIG93gxcQ&feature=youtu.be

OK so we have our pre-match shortlist but how do we now work out if we want to enter a trade inplay when football trading?

I have a few things I specifically look for when going for goals:

1. I usually enter at HT or after 60mins if trading inplay - reason being there is enough data at that point in the match to be meaningful.

If a football match gets to half-time with 0 shots on target and 2 shots off target I'm unlikely to enter a goals trade at that point, it is just not 'lively' enough.

If, however, a football match gets to half-time with 7 shots on taget and 8 shots off target I'm likely to enter a goals trade at that point, there has been a lot of action and this should continue after the break.

2. I like plenty of shots on target and off target, if there are 5+ shots on taget at half-time and 5+ off target with a few corners thrown in for good measure I feel a lot better about entering a trade.

I tend to use Bet365 for the implay stats but we are hoping to develop something for BTC so we can keep all the stats in once place eventually.

3. Dangerous attacks are a great plus. Is the game open? End to end? How can we tell just from the statistics. There is a thing on Bet365 called 'attacks' and 'dangerous attacks', so if a team attacks they will get one point and if they get even deeper they get a point for dangerous attacks. I like the ratio of attacks to dangerous attacks to be high so if for example if a game has:

  • 50 attacks with 20 dangerous attacks - there are not enough attacks getting to the final third and being threatening - 40%
  • 50 attacks with 30 dangerous attacks - there are plenty of attacks getting into the final third and threatening a goal - 60%

I like the number of dangerous attacks to be above 50% the number of attacks.

4. If going for late goals I have a simple little trick -

I record the stats at HT of a game I like and then check back at 60 mins to see if the action has continued. So say at HT there were 5 shots on and 5 shots off target I would like to see 4-5 more shots between 45-60 mins to make sure it is still looking like a goal will be scored. Simple to do and it makes a big difference knowing that the game is still open and attacking, meaning you can have more confidence in entering at this time.

So these are a few of the things I look for when going to second half goals football trading. Remember it all starts with the pre-match shortlist of games to trade before I even look at the inplay!

My HT LTD Filter -

If you are a member of BTC you would have been receiving my lay the draw at half-time strategy selections via the daily email. I have now tested it for three months and the results are here to see: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UQYxOh-mUHfAm9OByLhzX0ooiQQUqYsh...

 

83% of the trades won! Even if you let the trade run after a goal it won 68% of the time! I am very pleased with this. Given that the average odds are around 2.8 to lay the draw at half time you would be looking at a very good profit on these.

 

As our members know we are always looking to improve our service here at BTC and continue to make you money! 

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