Inplay Football Trading - Laying the draw at half time and second half goals!
- The teams must have played 8 matches this season
- Restrict data to current season only
- My scope is 20 matches
- I exclude play off matches
That is the exact filter and it works great for me finding games to lay the draw at half-time.
OK so we have our pre-match shortlist but how do we now work out if we want to enter a trade inplay when football trading?
I have a few things I specifically look for when going for goals:
1. I usually enter at HT or after 60mins if trading inplay - reason being there is enough data at that point in the match to be meaningful.
If a football match gets to half-time with 0 shots on target and 2 shots off target I'm unlikely to enter a goals trade at that point, it is just not 'lively' enough.
If, however, a football match gets to half-time with 7 shots on taget and 8 shots off target I'm likely to enter a goals trade at that point, there has been a lot of action and this should continue after the break.
2. I like plenty of shots on target and off target, if there are 5+ shots on taget at half-time and 5+ off target with a few corners thrown in for good measure I feel a lot better about entering a trade.
I tend to use Bet365 for the implay stats but we are hoping to develop something for BTC so we can keep all the stats in once place eventually.
3. Dangerous attacks are a great plus. Is the game open? End to end? How can we tell just from the statistics. There is a thing on Bet365 called 'attacks' and 'dangerous attacks', so if a team attacks they will get one point and if they get even deeper they get a point for dangerous attacks. I like the ratio of attacks to dangerous attacks to be high so if for example if a game has:
- 50 attacks with 20 dangerous attacks - there are not enough attacks getting to the final third and being threatening - 40%
- 50 attacks with 30 dangerous attacks - there are plenty of attacks getting into the final third and threatening a goal - 60%
I like the number of dangerous attacks to be above 50% the number of attacks.
4. If going for late goals I have a simple little trick -
I record the stats at HT of a game I like and then check back at 60 mins to see if the action has continued. So say at HT there were 5 shots on and 5 shots off target I would like to see 4-5 more shots between 45-60 mins to make sure it is still looking like a goal will be scored. Simple to do and it makes a big difference knowing that the game is still open and attacking, meaning you can have more confidence in entering at this time.
So these are a few of the things I look for when going to second half goals football trading. Remember it all starts with the pre-match shortlist of games to trade before I even look at the inplay!