How do goals effect the flow of a match? How do they impact our future trading on that event?
These questions are so important but so few traders ever talk about them that it makes me wonder how many even consider them.
Why we should we care?
Part of our presumptive edge when trading footall on the Betfair Exchange is thinking outside the box. Trying to consider things often overlooked that could prove the difference between winning a bet or a trade or losing one.
Have you ever watched a free flowing attacking game where goals look imminent, then one is scored and the game slows down with one team happy to defend and play out the match not trying to score again? Or have you seen a slow game where no goals look likely, then suddenly out of nowhere a goal is scored, which leads to the other team changing tack and playing open expansive attacking football? I certainly have, many, many times. I got fed up of being caught out by these gameflow state changes that I decided to devise a way to combat it. I will explain in detail below:
So first, what can happen after a goal?
There are 3 things that can happen to a match after a goal.
- It could have no effect on gameplay and gameflow will stay the same, when watching a game you will find this is rare.
- It will make one team or the game as a whole open up and the game will become more attacking, which should increase the liklihood of a goal.
- It will make one team or the game as a whole shut up shop and slow down, leading to less chance of a further goal.
It really is that simple, these are the only three outcomes of gameflow post-goal.
How do we identify this?
OK so firstly we need to be able to spot these changes, how do we do this? There are two really easy ways to do this:
1. If you are watching the game live, use the naked eye test. What are you seeing infront of you? Has anything changed since the goal, tactics, subs or a noticeable increase or drop in the tempo?
2. If you are just looking at the stats, check how many shots on or off target, corners and dangerous attacks happen in the next 5-10 minute period. This is quite a simple way to analyse hard data and gain a good idea of whether the tempo has been upped or has slowed down.
How do we use this to our advantage?
Once we have identified how a goal has impacted gameplay we can trade accordingly and use it to make money or protect profit we may have already made.
The simple equation to use is if a game 'livens up' after a goal make a trade going for another goal or two to be scored, then once a goal is scored you can green up and reassess your position. Conversely, if a game slows down you can enter an 'unders' trade backing no further goals or maybe backing under 2.5 goals if it is 1-0 and giving yourself a cushion if a goal is scored.
What if I entered a trade before the goal? Usually I would cut bait, take a profit if the goal favoured your trade or a loss if it didn't and assess the game further before re-entering or leaving it alone. Reason being there is a good chance the goal will change the tempo of the game and your original trade many now be invalidated in terms of whether it is still value or not.
The most important thing to do is to use this imformation, the worst thing you can do is just sit on it and not alter your trading/trades accordingly.
The best news?
You are a member of Betfair Trading Community, the place where we help traders become better at their trading. The simple fact is you will have a much higher chance of making money from trading if you learn from us and follow what we preach!
I hope this helps!
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