Finding Value in Over 1.5 goals markets Football Trading

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Finding Value in Over 1.5 goals markets Football Trading

Finding Value in Over 1.5 goals markets Football Trading

Ryan Carruthers's picture
Jul 21, 2016

I am sure if you have read anything on Football trading then you will know the Overs/unders markets are gold for trading on Betfair!

The Overs/unders markets are one of those markets which are very popular among bettors and football trading alike. People are worrying now (because of their popularity) that it is getting harder to find value on these markets but I am here to tell you that you can still find value and I do on an almost daily basis.

As with everything I do and preach, research and stats are king. Finding games which look right for the over 1.5 goals markets is no different; put the time in and you are going to be more successful. I understand though that a lot of people don’t fully know what they are looking for when it comes to research so I am going to address that over the course of this blog post.

The aim here is getting a list of games where that ball will hit the net.

The first thing I do is use the stats engine at www.betfairtradingcommunity.com.  I have my criteria set as a filter in my settings so I ensure that I never miss a game and I have my selections started to be narrowed down for me.  

If you want to get my exact filters?  You can!!!

over 1.5 filter download

 

So I know that the chance of this game being over 1.5 goals is 85%, this is my first checkpoint. I have a list of games but what I do next is crucial.

H2H & Recent Games

The next stage of my research is to check the recent games between the 2 teams in their H2H record and then also the recent games for them both individually so that I can see if there are goals in both games and how their defences are playing. A solid defence means less goals - something we are trying to avoid. So if a team has a habit of conceeding goals they are what we want so look out for. Have they kept a clean sheet? If so, how many games have they kept a clean sheet in?

Did I mention that you can do that on betfairtradingcommunity stats as well?

Once you think you have identified a game where you have a promising stat on the over 1.5 and then poor defensive records - what do you do with this information?

We must find out if the trade has initial value. To do this go to Betfair and find the game and look at the current odds for over 1.5.

The example game is currently 1.26. We divide 100/1.26 to get the % the market thinks it will happen and have 79% - but from our research we know that it is 85% from the stats and both defences are leaking goals. We have value because we have calculated an 85% chance or 1.18.

Now I would never ever back at 1.26 - the potential downside is too great, so what do I do?

I wait. I write these games down and set an alert on Flashscore and monitor these games in play. Quite often you can get to HT and these games are 0-0! Perfect, so check the in play stats - is it a lively game? Yes and our research points to more goals so I back the over 1.5 goals and I am getting anything from 1.70 or above. I usually back these for 1 point and leave them.

Summary

To sum up then, you first need to create the filter in your stats pack on betfairtradingcommunity.com . This will eliminate a lot of the time spent on research. Then look at the clean sheets of the teams playing each other, then check the price available before the game and compare it with the one you have and if you have value you have a potential selection.

Get my filter and start finding the selections today….

 over 1.5 filter download

Comments

Brian 's picture

Hi Ryan, I am a complete newbie just learning the ropes from yourself And others,my question is how can You rely on the stats engine for a new season when most of the teams have new players and some have new managers with different formations and game plans to the previous season if you know what I mean,sorry if this is a stupid question. Regards Brian.
Ryan's picture

Hi, No a good question, the stats software we created goes back on their last ten games. If you take Leicester for example the season before they won the league they did exceptionally well and carried that form into the new season. But as we everything in trading we have to research more we know the better. Some teams will be similar some won't be. After 8 years trading I don't always get involved from the start in the games for this reason I give it a week or two before I get involved however I do use the stats as a base to do some in play trading if an opportunity presents itself.
Ricky's picture

Hi. I read this and understood it until 'I usually back these for 1 point and leave them'. What is 1 point? and is it safe to leave a trade to run without a stop loss plan of some sort?
Ryan Carruthers's picture

One point is simply taking the trading bank divide it by 100 then you have one point.

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