EASY Betfair Trading Strategy Using Maths & Game Theory To Make Money
Game theory is a defensive strategy, using the principles of it I cannot be exploited as a Betfair Trader. The only way I could lose is bad luck and whilst that could happen, it should even out over time, theoretically if we follow mathematical principles.
The idea of it is that you are doing the optimal trades and making the optimal decisions based on the Betfair Trading market you are using.
Set and Forget Betting is very easy for implementing this optimal approach - You use testing as your basis for working out when to place a bet and when not to. Fortunately, with the Betfair Trading Community software I can set up a strategy and save it, meaning I get my selections given to me each and every day! If you want to use Game Theory and learn how to trade optimally then software like this is essential.
Here is an example from a Lay The Away Team Strategy Shared at the start of 2023.
As we approach one year of trading and now have over 2000 results we can analyze this excel sheet to determine what the optimal bets would have been and more importantly, what they are likely to be moving forward.
One optimal play is very simply to lay the away team every time, doing this would have made £1700 to only £10 lay stakes (at time of writing). With an expected value per trade around 3% return of interest per trade then we know that this strategy has been very profitable.
The beauty of Betfair Trading is that we can exploit these opportunities every time, as we have an expected value range and know that the more often we bet on the strategy the more chance we have of making money, in the long term. It’s simple maths!
The last phrase is important, ‘in the long term’, as with anything Betfair Trading related the long term is the key outcome, we should not make judgements on strategies or optimal bets and trades based on only a few outcomes.
Maths is a key part to working out an optimal betting or trading opportunity. Using maths we can work out the ‘baseline’ that we need to go above to be profitable. Don’t worry this doesn’t take any deep level mathematical skill, one of the easiest ways to do this is to record the P&L you would have made from a bet or trade. Like I have done in this excel sheet. Therefore, I know unequivocally that this strategy would have been very profitable in 2023 and unless disaster strikes at the end of the year, I will end 2023 with a very nice profit from it.
Maths is also the key to working out when a strategy is sub optimal, this is where Game Theory also helps us to not just make money but save a significant amount of money. Take this strategy which started out as a Lay The Home Team Strategy. The strategy has over 500 results but is currently -£450 at the time of writing. We can see that this strategy would have lost us money this year since testing began at the end of April.
The optimal play here though is not simply to delete the strategy and not bet on it, the optimal play here is to analyze using Game Theory and work out what we could do to turn it into a profitable strategy.
One simple way to do this would be to reverse the strategy and back the home team!
If we had backed the home team we would have made money on this strategy, even accounting for the 2% commission difference.
We can also use a method I am going to teach you below to fully optimize the selections.
This is all great stuff and well worth understanding but what I really want to teach you today is how to optimize your Betfair Trading strategy even further!
This is easy to do and we will use the exact same football strategy from earlier to demonstrate this.
There are two easy ways I can optimize this football trading strategy. You could do this even more simply if you are an excel whizz but I’m going to show you a way to do it, even if you have no knowledge of excel!
Work out which odds are profitable
Work out which leagues are profitable
Here is the final part to really optimize this using Game Theory:
Do not remove the selections from your sheet, do not alter your initial strategy in any way and do not stop tracking the data from it!
Instead, simply create a new strategy using the new criteria from the old strategy, so you have a copy which should perform better.
You can do all of this in the Betfair Trading Community software and I highly recommend that if you are serious about making money betting or from Betfair Trading, that you do it!
Then split test the strategies and see if this holds true! Create a new sheet, record the results separately and then compare them monthly.
This is Betfair Trading and Betting using Maths and Game Theory to optimize your decisions. It’s not that complex and it will make you a better prepared Betfair Trader. Remember this is a defensive approach because the first thing we must consider when investing real money is how to best protect it!