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The Daily Advice Emails are back!

The Daily Advice Emails are back!

Martin Futter's picture
Feb 17, 2018

OK so as you may or may not know, we have recently had to change email providers. As you can imagine with such a high volume of members this is no easy task and Ryan and Adam have done more amazing work to make this happen. 

So the daily trading advice emails are back, for one day only I am releasing it on the blog also. If you are a member and would like to recieve these emails and are not already getting them, then speak to us on the forum or email us: info@betfairtradingcommunity.com

Anyway, without further ado here are my trading notes for today (or in the case of the cricket tomorrow). 

17th February

Football Trading Notes

We had a lovely sub 1.3 lay winner yesterday, lets hope for another good day today! 

La Liga Spain: 

Las Palmas v Sevilla - LOST

Betfair odds Sevilla - 2.08

Martin's odds Sevilla - 2.5 

  • Las Palmas have won 4 drawn 1 and lost 6 of their home games this season.
  • Las Palmas have only lost once in the last 4 though which includes an impressive win against high flying Valencia. 
  • Sevilla have lost 7 of their last 9 away games including a 5-1 thrashing from Eibar last time out. 

Las Palmas are in a relegation dogfight and will need their home form to stay strong for the rest of the season to have any chance of staying up. They will be fully motivated here today against a Sevilla side that blow hot or cold. Sevilla's away form is the reason they aren't closer to the Champions League spots. If they don't turn up today then this will be a very tough game for them in Gran Canaria.

Sevilla are shorter odds than I would give here, this could be based purely on their recent successes as a club but does not reflect their current form. As ever it is vital to watch the first couple of minutes here to see how the teams look (Sevilla have the potential to run very hot on their day still), if Las Palmas look OK then a draw not bet back of them is potentially a good move at 2.7+. Another potential angle is to lay Sevilla if they take the lead at short odds for very low risk. 

Alaves v Deportivo - TRADE WON

Betfair odds Alaves - 1.93

Martin's odds Alaves - 1.67

  • Alaves are in great form having won 3 of their last 4 home games drawing the other one. 
  • Deportivo have only won once away from home all season, losing 3 of their last 4 to a hefty 17-2 scoreline combined.

Alaves have a decent cushion now to the relegation zone, so motivation may not be as strong as it could be but winning breeds confidence and you would still expect them to show up strong today. Despite Deportivo's awful away form they are only 3 points off 17th place, they will be desperate to get a win against one of the relegation fighting rivals. 

Alaves look a strong pick here even at their current odds, for those who don't mind a little more risk in terms of lower odds and more liability the 1.4+ draw no bet on Alaves looks appealing. Again, of Alaves fall behind and Deportivo trade at odds on then a lay of Depor could be a good play. As ever it is vital to watch the opening exchanges to check that Alaves are fully motivated.  

Holland - Erdivisie:

Ado Den Haag v Willem II - TRADE WON

Den Haag Betfair odds - 2.08

Den Haag Martin's odds - 1.8

  • Den Haag have won 3 of 4 at home drawing the other
  • Willem have lost 3 of their last 4 away drawing the other
  • Willem have not won away in the league since October

Den Haag are well clear of the relegation scrap at the moment and Willem are very much in it. Den Haag do still have distant European football dreams though so hopefully are motivated today. 

Den Haag look strong favourites here on recent form. Draw no bet at 1.5 looks a good price here if Den Haag start well. If Willem trade at odds on at any stage then they could be a good lay opportunity. 

Turkey - Super League:

Sivasspor v Osmanlispor - TRADE WON

Sivasspor Betfair odds - 2.1

Sivasspor Martin's odds - 1.5

  • Sivasspor have won 3 of their last 4 home games drawing the other
  • Siva beat the top 3 teams in the league (Galatasaray, Besiktas and Basaksehir) during that run 
  • Osmanlispor have not won away this season drawing twice and losing 8 of their 10 games

This is the biggest odds descrepancy of the day for me today. I have Sivasspor as much strong favourites than Betfair does, they have been in red hot form at home and their opponents have a 0% win rate away from home. If Sivasspor start OK then the draw no bet at 1.5+ looks a good price. The only slight concern is that Osman are in a relegation scrap and will be fighting for their lives but Sivasspor still have an outside chance of Euro qualification given the run they are on. 

 

Tennis Trading Notes

Nice green on the lay first set winner yesterday in the Mayer v Monfils match. 

ATP Tour

Buenos Aires Semi-Final

Dominic Thiem v Gael Monfils - TRADE WON

Thiem Betfair Odds - 1.52

Thiem Martin's odds - 1.33

  • Thiem leads the head to head 4-0 including once on clay
  • Thiem is one of the top players on clay and loves in in South America where he really broke through last year
  • Monfils blows hot and cold and is very inconsistent
  • Thiem is ranked 37 places ahead on Monfils as the world number 6 currently

Thiem is a beast on clay and if he is at the races today there is only one winner. The head to head is hard to ignore and Thiem is a much better player than when they last met a year ago. Monfils's career is on the decline and his lowly 43 world ranking confirms that, he can raise his game against the top players though and there is still some concern he can win here but at the current odds Thiem looks a value play. 

 

Cricket Trading Notes

T20 International - Hamilton 6am GMT 18th Feb

New Zealand v England - TRADE WON

  • New Zealand won last time out after scoring 196 but only by 12 runs
  • Not many T20's are played here but looking at the last result a couple of years ago 200 could be a required score to win 194 not enough
  • Both teams are very strong at batting and weaker at bowling
  • On that basis another high scorer could be on the cards 
  • England have lost all 3 T20's in this series so far

T20 International - Sylhet 11am GMT 18th Feb

Bangladesh v Sri Lanka

  • Sri Lanka lead this series 1-0 as they chased 193 with absolute ease
  • These teams seem to score big or get bowled out cheap
  • First T20i in 4 years and amazingly Bangladesh or Sri Lanka have not played a T20i here
  • Watching the early exchanges key with pitch and ground here
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