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Betfair Football Trading Strategy - Why It Pays To Lay!

Betfair Football Trading Strategy - Why It Pays To Lay!

Martin's picture
Jul 08, 2021

I feel hungover today, yet I have not had a drop of alcohol. Not that anyone who had witnessed my antics last night would have believed that fact, to say I celebrated those England goals like a madman would be very accurate.

My wife actually used the words 'I thought you had gone insane!'.

I imagine I was not the only English person who let out their animal side cheering loudly as England made their first final in my lifetime!

Was it just me who had to jump up and down to release some nervous tension before Kane took that penalty? I have thoroughly enjoyed Euro 2020 so far. 

Anyway, those not from this beautiful country of mine will be wondering, what on Earth does any of this have to do with football trading strategies on Betfair?

Well, my friends, the match vs Denmark was a great example of one of my favourite trading strategies in action.

Laying an underdog who takes an unexpected lead, when you heavily fancy the favourite to come back into the game. 

This was not the only game in the tournament where this had happened and in nearly every case, there was a clear and obvious (my favourite phrase this morning, if I knew how to do emojis I would do a wink) lay opportunity on the underdog, who then became the favourite.

France vs Switzerland was another great example of this, the Swiss took an unexpected lead and once France started to click the Swiss could be taken on as they were now favourites to win. 

Spain vs Croatia another clear example where a Croatia took a shock lead (thanks to a terrible piece of goalkeeping), and could be layed at a very reasonable price.

Earlier in the tournament Hungary gave us some real gifts.

Hungary took a shock lead vs France and could be layed at much shorter odds. They also took a lead vs Germany and the same was true again.

Denmark have been equally kind, taking a shock lead against Belgium and England, trading at much shorter odds.

In all six of these examples the underdog traded either odds on or below 3.0 in price on the Betfair football markets.

In every game the pre-match favourite equalised and never did they lose the match in the 90 minute market that we trade on. 

You would have made a very good profit trading these matches using this football trading strategy!

So, I know what you are probably thinking, that's great and all Martin but how do I choose which matches to trade this way on?

As ever with Betfair trading, match selection is what sorts the profitable Betfair traders from those who lose.

We actually have trading software that can help with this and even if you are member you may not even know it as our team Ratings software is a bit of a hidden gem in our Betfair trading database.

This is not available anywhere else on the internet and is unique to us! The key ratings we look at for this laying the pre-match underdog when they take the lead strategy are: (Forum legend Richard was the first person to utilise this.)

ELO Differential - This is a rating showing the srength of a team we want 100+ difference ideally for the stronger team to the weaker one.

Home/Away Comeback Rating - This is a rating out of 100 and shows how likely a team is to comeback if they go behind, so the higher the better!

Members can view or download the ratings straight to excel here:

The football ratings software is the easiest way to find the strong teams each day who could be good match selections for this Betfair trading football strategy.

There are lots of other ratings on there to dive into like - Goal Expectation, Goal Supremacy, Accuracy, First to Score etc.

If you are a stats geek like myself, this will be a dream for you to use and is an essential resource for members.

So, how else can you decide which matches to trade on?

In Euro 2020 and any major tournament it is quite easy to watch the teams play every match. If you are as big of a football fan as me, then it is a given.

The key thing about this is you get to know teams, you learn with your own eyes how good they are.

Notice none of the matches I gave in the recent examples were the first games for any team in the tournament, I had watched them all play at least one game before utilising this strategy.

It's not difficult to know the England are a much bigger footballing nation than Denmark, or that World Champions France will back themselves to equalise against relative minnows Switzerland and Hungary.

If you see a much stronger team go behind, view signs that they are starting to dominate and that an equliser looks inevitable, then this is the time to strike.

The opportunities tend to be fairly clear and the beautiful thing is that you are now laying at underdog at short odds, your liability is reasonable and this is where the profit comes from.

We expect the strong team to comeback and most of the time they will!

There is one other match I have not mentioned, where a big pre-match favourite went behind but I did not lay and that is the Netherlands vs Czech Republic, when the team you want to equalise gets a red card then there is no way you should enter this trade.

This was a very easy one to avoid and once the red card came for the Dutch, Czech Republic became the favourites anyway even at 0-0.

Now, if a red card comes after you have entered the trade you should really just accept the loss and trade out and move on, especially if you can get a decent chunk of your stake back. 

So let's recap quickly - 

To profit from this great football trading strategy we should: 

1. Check the strength of the teams and their likelihood to comeback using software:

2. Check that the team who goes behind is starting to dominate and the equaliser looks inevitable.

3. Check the match situation - if there has been a red card for the strong team or there is a serious reason to avoid the trade - then do so!

This is one of if not my favourite Betfair football trading strategies and I hope you enjoy using it as much as I do, and, more importantly make some good profit.

Have a great day everyone and enjoy the final of Euro 2020, so happy to be there a win would just be a bonus at this point, come on England!

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