Australian Open Tennis Women's Final Preview - Simona Halep v Caroline Wozniacki
Simona Halep (Romania) v Caroline Wozniacki (Denmark) - Australian Open Women's Final, 8.30 am UK time, 27th January 2018:
If you saw the picture for this post it has some vague relevance that I will get to later on. If not and you are attracted to women then it may be worth checking out on the blog homepage!
The battle for the first major of the year and the world number 1 ranking comes down to this. A potential classic is in store for us here and I will go through my trading notes with you so you can potentially have an edge on the market.
First a bit of background on the players -
Halep - Possibly the toughest fighter on the WTA tour, what she lacks in size she more than makes up for in relentless precise aggression. Halep famously had breast reduction surgery (see the picture on blog page), that is serious commitment! She has saved 5 match points in two different matches to get here, it is safe to say she does not give up easily. A better returner than server, her serve is usually broken a few times per match. She is world number 1 for now.
Wozniacki - Heavy topspin and a great wingspan allow Woz to dominate against weaker hitters and short balls. He consistency have improved hugely in recent times and she now has a chance for the world number 1 ranking. This was hard to imagine a couple of years ago when she was shafted by Rory McIlroy and her career took a severe nosedive.
Odds vs my odds - Official Betfair exchange current odds are 1.72 Halep and 2.36 Wozniacki. My odds have these prices reversed with Wozniacki favourite around 1.8. What is for sure is that this match could be a very close call decided by a couple of key points here and there.
- Both players are layable a set and a break up, short odds will lead to little risk and 3 of their last four matches have gone the distance (3 set matches). This is almost an automatic lay imo.
- Wozniacki has won the last 3 head to head matches vs Halep, this is a surprising stat but shows she is able to dominate a lot with her deep heavy topspin and height advantage.
- Halep has had a much tougher run to the final, beating an impressive Kerber along the way, this is probably why she is favourite but Woz has beaten what was put in front of her very easily since the 2nd round.
- Lay first set winner is inplay here especially if Halep wins it and serves first in the second set.
- These two break each other for fun, don't back the player who is about to serve as you will be better waiting to see if they hold or not.
- 40-0 , 40-15 lead on serve does not equal auto hold for these guys, one piece of momentum during a game can lead to a flurry of points won by the same player.
- A big lead in the third set has not been layable but nerves may play a part here, watch to see if the leader gets tight.
- Watch the depth of hitting, if Woz is hitting heavy topspin with great depth and consistancy she will win. If Halep is hitting short service line distance shots she will be in big trouble.
- Halep need to be the aggressor just as much as Woz is. If she is retrieving most points she will be in trouble.
Use this information and watch what is happening in front of you and you should make good money trading this match.