3 Month Profit and Loss Results of BTC's Goal Picks | Betfair Trading Community

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3 Month Profit and Loss Results of BTC's Goal Picks

3 Month Profit and Loss Results of BTC's Goal Picks

Martin Futter's picture
Sep 20, 2017

BTC Stats Software presents the results of ‘Martin’s Goal Picks’ (adapted from Keith’s filter which originated from Martin’s over filter)

 

So we have finally reached three months of testing! We are always championing this kind of test period for any systems you have and are pleased to present the results of one of ours. So without further ado here are the results:

 

Over 1.5 Goals - Backing over 1.5 goals in the match from the start.

 

Perhaps the safest and most reliable goals betting market due to the shorter odds and high strike rates. This filter was highly impressive and has led to some very good profits.

  • Month 1 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £12.30

  • Month 2 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £28.30

  • Month 3 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £125.95

As with first half goal (below) month 3 exploded into a big profit! If you multiply this by 5 using the same liability as on second half goal bets you are looking at £629.75 profit for £50 average liability. A great return for a market where odds average is 1.25.

 

Over 2.5 Goals - Backing over 2.5 goals in the match from the start.

 

Many people’s favourite goals market as odds are nearly always above 1.5.

  • Month 1 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £56.50

  • Month 2 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £93.20

  • Month 3 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £246.33

A really consistent profit over the three months of testing, each month made good profit and the final profit is exceptional.  If you used £50 stakes (liability) you would have made £1231.65!

 

Over 3.5 Goals - Backing over 3.5 goals in the match from the start.

 

These longer odds back bets did extremely well, although you can hit long losing runs on such odds, the returns when hitting a few winners really stood out.

  • Month 1 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £184.9

  • Month 2 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £207.30

  • Month 3 using £10 level stakes (liability £10) - £274.31

Again a really consistent profit over the three months of testing, each month made good profit and the final profit is exceptional.  If you used £50 stakes (liability) you would have made £1371.55! Not one for the feint hearted but even £10 a bet made £274 which is not bad at all!

 

First half goal - Backing a first half goal.

 

We did not initially target this to do well but it became the nice surprise of testing with some cracking results. Note liability is a lot less than SHG. (Rolling profits)

  • Month 1 using £10 lay stakes (average liability £25 per bet) - £112 profit

  • Month 2 using £10 lay stakes (average liability £25 per bet) - £109.50 profit (small loss on month)

  • Month 3 using £10 lay stakes (average liability £25 per bet) - £365.6 profit

Month 3 exploded into a big profit! If you multiply this by 2 using the same liability as on second half goal bets you are looking at £731.2 profit for £50 average liability. A great return.

 

Second half goal - Backing a second half goal.

 

This is what we initially thought would be profitable and it was but not as profitable as other bets we could make on these picks. (Rolling profits)

  • Month 1 using £10 lay stakes (average liability £50 per bet) - £136.50 profit

  • Month 2 using £10 lay stakes (average liability £50 per bet) - £103.50 profit (small loss on month)

  • Month 3 using £10 lay stakes (average liability £50 per bet) - £284.50 profit

Solid results and a good profit at the end of it, however other bets are better in terms of risk reward here.

 

Conclusion:

 

The best bets to make are over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and backing a first half goal. All of these have made significant profits. My advice on staking is to still follow Sammy’s staking plans, making sure a 2 or 3 goal game leaves you break even or in profit. Backing a first half goal has also come into play now, just make sure you total take on all bets in 5% or less of your bankroll, and don’t put more than 1-2% in the over 2.5 or 3.5 goals. These picks have been quite simply stunning. The filter was created so that members who were busy with work and family life could have a set up and go system to follow and we feel we have achieved this. I will continue to record the results and update each month. As much as I am confident in these picks they will still need to be kept an eye on for bad runs etc. It will be interesting to see what the next three months have in store for us as we approach the Euro winter season. In many ways I would like a whole season under my belt before going overboard on staking.

Comments

Philip lund's picture

Martin - where do I get sight of your first half goals - do I have to find the bets myself ?
Joan Podadera's picture

Hi, Sorry, just landed! maybe I don't know very well all the features but I cannot see all these filters, I can see only "unders" not overs on members filters

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